Vol.15 No.3 November 2000
SPECIAL REPORT
The NACAC Annual Meeting
This year CB attended the 26th annual NACAC conference in Washington, D.C. and brought back plenty of information for our readers. Here is what we found...
AMERICA'S COUNSELING'S CRISIS
One of the best attended NACAC sessions this year featured Harvard/Radcliffe's Dean of Financial Aid and Admissions William Fitzsimmons.
Fitzsimmons set a somber tone for his listeners though when he warned that, "There is an absolute crisis in college counseling in our high schools. I think the state of college counseling is pretty close to a national scandal. We all ought to be outraged, speaking out and doing something about it."
Fitzsimmons pointed out that in 1998, a NACAC survey found that the average ratio of counseled to counselor in public schools stood at 331 to 1, and that some high schools had a ratio as high as 700 to 1. At independent schools, the average ratio was 161 to 1, while at religious schools the average reached 218 to 1. He added that according to the Center for Educational Statistics, by 2000, the national average of high school students to counselors had soared further to 565 to 1.
OLD PROBLEM, BLEAK FUTURE
"Now this isn't a new problem," Fitzsimmons said. "Harvard has statistics from years ago that show that the average ratio in the four largest U. S. cities was as high as 750 to 1 or greater." He added, "This summer at the Harvard Institute, several Southern California counselors complained about their ratios of 1,100 to 1. And we know of schools that have no counselors at all."
Fitzsimmons said good guidance counselors are essential for helping students get into the college right for them. And he recollected that he had attended one of those high schools with no counselors and that the 2ituation was difficult for students, particularly for those who come from a family background with no college.
"We ought to feel outrage about this inequitable situation," Fitzsimmons insisted. "All kids should have a better chance. We need more resources now. Kids who are living right now will go down the drain if someone doesn't step in."
Nor will the situation get much better. Fitzsimmons asserted that, "The future is pretty grim because there will be more students coming up through the system. By 2008, we'll be up to 3,200,000 high school students who need counseling. Right now we are at 2,853,000 students. In 2012, we'll still be over 3 million students.
"And this increase takes place disproportionately among the poor. So the prognosis isn't very good if things don't change. The very kids who come from communities that aren't getting help now and who have the least possible chance for making it in the future, those are exactly the kind of communities where things will get worse."
TIME FOR ACTION
Fitzsimmons wondered, "What can we do?" He advised counselors to start working together. "We need a kind of Marshall Plan for counseling. We need to mobilize and try to get out to some of these communities, to continue lobbying in Washington and at the state and local levels to get more resources directed at counseling and to reach out through the Internet and over the 'Digital Divide.'"
Fitzsimmons also advised schools "to do much more work with early awareness. It isn't good enough to try to get to these kids in junior and senior year. We need to do much more outreach in junior high and elementary school. We've got to get the word out to kids, we've got to get them to visit campuses. We need consortiums so college and high school and independent counselors can volunteer more of their time during the year both at high schools and below. Alumni can do a lot more around the country."
Fitzsimmons added, "I would like to see NACAC and the College Board organize volunteer days to help out some of these kids. I think retired counselors could be a huge help as well. As we get older, and better, maybe we'll have a little bit of time to volunteer to help. There is lots of expertise out there that gets overlooked."
Fitzsimmons concluded, "If something different doesn't happen, we are going to waste some great lives. If you see these kids and see how bright and active and intelligent they are, and think that a lot of them are not going to make it, are not even going to get out of high school, it is an incredible tragedy." [back to top]
"HIGHER EDUCATION: THE FUTURE "AIN'T" WHAT IT USED TO BE"
Universities are experiencing accelerated change and by 2008, the nation will surpass the 1977 peak number of students in college, going up to 3.2 million students. That's according to B. Anne Wright, vice president for enrollment, Rice University, who gave NACAC listeners an insightful look back and forward at the college admissions process.
MARKET TRENDS
In looking back at market developments in the college admissions, Wright said, "Back in the 1970s is when we started to use the term 'marketing.' Direct mail in big numbers was fairly new. In the 1980s, there were videos and the increases in merit aid and financial packaging. That's when our aid budgets started doubling each year.
"In the 1990's," Wright summarized, "the 'Overlap' anti-trust decision against Ivy League schools by the Justice Department really effected all colleges because it made us more conscious of litigation and set off the free-for-all in financial aid. And of course, most recently in the late 1990s and 2000, leveraging and use of regression analysis, were very important, all a part of the era of negotiation and willingness to pay, along with the new initiatives in the web.
Wright observed that throughout these decades the image of colleges was changing. "We remember the news accounts about 'greedy colleges,' the Newsweek cover of colleges that said "$1,000 a week," which sent the message to many that college was out of reach. But that is not the reality for most U.S. colleges."
Things are changing. "The January 2000 announcement by Williams College that it will freeze the comprehensive cost of its college may turnout to be a benchmark against which many of us will be measured," said Wright. All of this has led to a changed perc5ption of college and new challenges for counselors. [back to top]
NEW TRENDS TO WATCH
In surveying the future, Wright said, "It does look like this new century will be nothing like the laid-back 1970s. Besides the diversity challenge that we all know about, and that is one of the main ones coming, the biggest issues that I see in the next decades, are:
1) Commercialization, or college as a business;
2) How the web is changing the dynamics of what is going on;
3) Technology and financing and how econometric modeling is altering pricing and financial aid."
Wright commented on all three trends, starting with commercialization. "In the early 1980s, the college rankings really took off," Wright said. "Instead of counselors, families and colleges working together, the commercial rankings began to get more in the way. I've been astonished about how the number of rankings have proliferated; books, magazines, the web. Everyone is trying to get into the act.
"But it isn't just the rankings. Higher education is becoming big business. The truth is that big business has recognized that college is a profitable business.
"Corporations are underwriting recruiting campaigns and summer camps on campus. We've seen the fight between Coke and Pepsi about who will dominate the soda machines on campus. Certainly there is a proliferation of credit and debit cards on campus. And we are beginning to see more endowed chairs such as the K-Mart Professor of Marketing at several institutions. Colleges are forming for-profit organizations. And many of our faculty are being lured by the big money of distance learning royalties." [back to top]
THE WEB
"If there is a single area that is the strategic inflection point for colleges, it is the web and how it has permeated so many aspects of our work. USA Today recently discussed micro-sites, where students can answer a questionnaire and that site organizes that information to create a personal web page. Many universities that are not in the top 15 or so in the U.S. News & World Report ratings are creatively using these. The University of Dayton, for example, is doing many imaginative things. This is a positive.
"The web is wonderful for information, for virtual tours, for real time experience and for the advent of the financial aid estimator which Princeton pioneered. Even many of the commercial web sites really have a lot of useful information for students...
"There is ecollegebid.com, which is a consortium of private colleges that are not at the top of the rankings. The site acts as a brokering agent between colleges and students. This really is a free market at work with pricing and financial aid coming in as major players in college selection.
"Lots of people are horrified at this Priceline approach. This is actually an extension of what many of us are doing with admissions negotiations at private colleges, saying we will not be undersold. What it does, of course, is moves us ever closer to minimum pricing and to negative pricing, when you pay students to attend. That is what happens in graduate school. So we may end up paying some of the higher ability, most desirable students to attend our institutions. I hope not. Eventually there will be a shakeout where the best approaches survive.
"The good news," Wright revealed, "is there is a smaller and smaller digital divide among college-bound high school seniors. In one study, 94 percent of white college-bound students had Internet access. But 99 percent of black students had access. That is wonderful news."
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TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCING
Wright added though, "We still are worried about the 'financial aid time bomb.' The amount of financial aid going out is now equal to the amount of tuition coming in. This is what we often hear from the comptrollers and business officers because competition for students has led to the relatively new phenomena of aggressive pricing.
"Discounts have affected demand in a significant way. And because of the Justice Department's 'Overlap Decision,' we are now in what is sometimes called a 'positional arms race.' That is, we cannot agree to disarm. It's a very odd kind of situation," Wright said.
"The application of econometric modeling and regression analysis to financial aid is the most advanced twist to this financial aid arms race," Wright pointed out. "This is a method of forecasting enrollment probability using factors like SATs, institutional grants, ethnic background and historical yield for subgroups, so the college can determine the minimum grant needed to enroll students and to enhance revenue.
"The positive way to look at this is," Wright explained, "that colleges are trying to find the minimum grant needed to enroll students and to raise the probability of enrolling the most desirable students. That's what colleges are interested in doing. The negative view is that although leveraging and selective pricing modeling allow us to reposition the marketplace, students end up choosing their college based on price rather than fit. [back to top]
"I called several counselors," Wright said, "and not many of them know much about it. The only thing they saw was that something was going on with financial aid packages that students in their schools received, making it harder to predict aid packages.
"These counselors told me that modeling seems to allow greater funding potential, but also creates artificial lures for the students. Then counselors have to figure out whether there will be scholarship offers when they counsel the student. Students now find it is necessary to apply to a financial aid safety school.
"The problem is that econometric models don't recognize individual cases of special individuals and solutions," Wright said. "It also pits the rich against the poor in not giving lower-income students choices. Some say it raises an issue of equity for students versus financial soundness for colleges.
"I think that you cannot stop progress and change in technology. If used correctly, this approach should be a reasonable new tool for our profession. It is a scientific approach to a complex problem in forecasting and offers the potential to reduce variability and thus shorten the admissions process, maybe even eliminating wait lists. But there is always the chance of misuse, of losing a balance between the good of the student and the good of the college. That is what we have to guard against.
THE COUNSELOR' S ROLE
"Do counselors still have a role?" Wright asked. "Of course, the need for personal guidance is greater than ever and will continue to grow as marketing continues to work on our students. But I also hope that future counselors will continue to judge colleges first on academic strength and also on diversity. Minority groups must have a pathway or we are going to have an undereducated majority in our future.
"Managing costs has become important," Wright added, "because if we don't manage our business, I'm afraid someone else will. And we do not want price controls in education." [back to top]
THE COUNSELOR'S CORNER
What the Research Says on....
WHY DO STUDENTS REALLY CHOOSE A COLLEGE?
· High school students with higher abilities are more adventurous and more willing to go farther from home;
· Parents who went to private eastern colleges tend to send their children to private colleges and universities;
· Most students today won't even look at a college if it doesn't have their desired major.
These are but a few of the findings of David Brodigan and George Dehne of GDA Integrated Services who studied about 20,000 students in high schools over the last four years to learn what students have in common. Here is a summary of their NACAC presentation:
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WHERE DO STUDENT PREFER TO GO TO COLLEGE?
Half of students are in colleges 100 miles from home. Large private universities and flagship public universities tend to have the strongest students in terms of grades. Large private universities and Liberal Arts I colleges (based on the former Carnegie Classification) tend to have students from families with higher income. Males are more likely to go to big institutions.
Parent education predicts the enrollment of a student in a public or private college. Parents who went to a private school have children who go to a private school. This is true also for students of color. If their parents went to private colleges, they are inclined to go to private colleges as well.
Students tend toward settings they know, according to Dehne. Students from suburban and rural areas tend to prefer small private colleges and regional public universities over large universities. Students from urban areas tend to want colleges and universities located in cities. High ability males tend to go to large private or flagships institutions. "The culture in the Midwest believes in flagship public universities as a value; private is a value in the East, but students go to flagships because of other characteristics." [back to top]
CAMPUS CHARACTERISTICS
Students from private schools tend not to want to go where their friends go, said Dehne, who is based in South Carolina. "They want to reinvent themselves." However, students from large public high schools want to go where their friends go.
At flagship public universities and regional colleges, students want the option of living off campus with "a smorgasbord of offerings in terms of choosing lifestyle and options," said Dehne, while students who go to smaller colleges want more of a campus experience. And at large private universities students want athletics. Athletics is more important to students at flagship public institutions in the East. Volunteer opportunities are more important in the Midwest. Fraternities follow size. And what may be surprising to some, fraternities are more important in the East. The public institutions have more fraternities which Dehne thinks helps make a community manageable.
Students say they want a "supportive environment" but what that means to students is that "students support each other" and "the larger the institution the less they expect it," he said. [back to top]
MAJORS THE COIN OF THE REALM
About 83 percent of the students preferring a Liberal Arts I college do so because of the major and over a nationally-known larger institution. "The emphasis on majors has become the coin of the realm," said Dehne. A higher percentage of students are now saying they want to pursue "general education" as opposed to "liberal arts" because they feel it is important to their major. " We have so confused kids as to what 'liberal arts' means," said Dehne. " Liberal arts is an abstract concept for many students and the major has grown in importance." And at large private research universities students expect challenging courses. "That is an essential," said Dehne.
Students who end up at Liberal Arts I colleges and large private universities say they are going on to grad school. And the percentage of students who say they are interested in a college as preparation for graduate school is growing; 64 percent of high school students say will go to grad school.
At flagship public universities students want "opportunities for research;" but what they mean by that is "personal research" not necessarily the institution's research agenda. A college's honors program is important to eastern students. Students also want excellent academic advising. At bigger institutions, students expect it or need it more.
Students believe that at smaller institutions they will be able to customize their education more with overseas study, or original research internships. "Small schools ought to enhance their offerings in this area," Dehne advised. And often students will choose a college in an urban setting because of its internship opportunities. [back to top]
COST DOES MATTER
A high percentage of students say they will attend a college that costs the least. One third of all students who say they prefer a public institution end up at a private college, which may be because of scholarships, notes Dehne.
Minority students are more sensitive to prestige, said Dehne, and a ranking in U.S. News and World Report is more important to them as well as to first-generation students. Dehne feels this may be because students whose parents did not go to college may need other ways to measure an institution. And in general, what students mean by 'prestige' is name recognition;
For more information about this study see www.dehne.com.
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COUNSELOR'S BOOKSHELF
What new publications were exhibited at NACAC in Washington, DC? To be sure, much of the exhibit space was devoted to the new technologies for enrollment management and for processing financial aid. But here are a few of the publications hot off the pres and on display:
Books
Don't Miss Out: The Ambitious Student's Guide to Financial Aid, Anna and Robert Leider, in its "Silver Anniversary Edition," Octameron Associates, PO Box 2748, Alexandria, VA 22301-2748; ISBN 1-57509-056-2; $10; other new editions of Octameron College Guides are also available.
Fiske Guide to Colleges 2001, Edward B. Fiske, Three Rivers Press, The Crown Publishing Group, 299 Park Ave., NY, NY 10171; ISBN 0-8129-3172-6; $21.
Guide to Colleges for African American Students, Thomas LaViest, Ph.D., and the staff of DayStar Educational Research, Kaplan Books, published by Simon and Schuster; ISBN 0-684-85954-8; $20.
How to Go to College Almost for Free, Benjamin R. Kaplan, Waggle Dancer Books, PO Box 860, Gleneden Beach, OR 97388; ISBN 0-933094-30-2; contact the publisher for bulk prices or see waggledancer.com.
The Best 331 Colleges for You 2001, Robert Franek, Tom Meltzer and Eric Ownes, The Princeton Review, Random House, Inc., Princeton Review Books, 280 Park Ave., New York, NY 10017; $20.
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Other Publications
"America's Best Colleges, 2001 edition," U.S. News & World Report, $7.95 plus shipping and handling, U.S. News Specialty Marketing, Dept. 2600, PO Box 51790, Livonia, MI 48151.
"The Best College for You," Time/The Princeton Review, a 272-page publication in magazine format including a directory of colleges and universities; $7.95 at newsstands.
"The Pre-College Planner, revised edition," 32 pages, The Associated Colleges of the Midwest, single review copy free, 25 cents for additional copies; ACM, 205 W. Wacker Dr., Suite 1300, Chicago, IL 60606.
"Guide to the College Admission Process," 2000 edition, $5 each, bulk orders available, NACAC Publications, P.O. Box 18214, Merrifield, VA 22118-0214. [back to top]
NEWS YOU CAN USE
What other news was there from NACAC?
Common Application Not for Privates Only. Public colleges and universities may join the Common Application program, now in its 20th year. Currently, over 200 select private colleges and universities accept the Common Application, a standardized application form for use at any member institution.
Public colleges and universities are now eligible for membership. The key criterion for all is a demonstrated institutional commitment to using both subjective and objective materials as part of a selective admission process. The next review of membership from institutions will be January 2001 for inclusion in the program in 2001-02.
An online service is also expanding. It is available (http://app.commonapp.org). For more info contact the National Association of Secondary School Principals, 1904 Association Dr., Reston, VA 20191-1537. [back to top]
Use of Independent Consultants on the Rise. The Independent Educational Consultants Association now has some 300 members (but over 1,200 people applied last year), reflecting the growing number of people attracted to independent counseling. Mark Sklarow, executive director of the IECA told The Baltimore Sun that 11 percent of freshmen entering college a year ago used consulting service up from 1 percent a decade ago. For a copy of the "Directory 2001-2001" write IECA, 3251 Old Lee Highway, Ste 510, Fairfax, VA 220030-1504. [back to top]
Online College Fairs Underway. As announced in last month's CB, NACAC has a new Online College Fair program, an interactive, online event where students and their parents can chat live with representatives from some 200 colleges and universities across the country, view the campuses and learn about each institution.
The schedule for the online fairs was announced at NACAC. Those remaining for fall 2000: November 14 (science and engineering), November 29 (general interest), December 6 (special needs students). For spring 2001: January 17 (business), February 1 (general interest), February 21 (international), March 22 (general interest) and April 18 (students of color).
Check www.OnlineCollegeFair.com for complete descriptions and times. [back to top]
Thinking About Summer...Already? On display at NACAC: Summer Study in Paris and Summer Study at Penn State, a pre-college enrichment program for high school students offered through Summer Study Programs, 900 Walt Whitman Rd., Melville, NY 11747. Also. the Summer Focus at Berkeley; for info, write Education Unlimited, 1678 Shattuck Ave., #305, Berkeley, CA 94709. [back to top]
Think Globally. The European Council of International Schools, the largest association of international schools, now represents over 530 member schools around the globe and 400 institutions of higher education. It next meets November 12 in Nice, France. For information about membership see www.ecis .org or write, in the U.S., ECIS Office of the Americas, 105 Tuxford Terrace, Basking Ridge, NJ 07920.
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People Were Talking About... The Baltimore Sun ran a front-page story about the increase in "admissions consultants" October 9, "Guidance counseling does a free-lance turn." The article noted that Kaplan Inc., the test prep company, launched a $120-an-hour admissions consulting service last month in New York and in the Baltimore-Washington area with plans to take the service nationwide.
...USA Today ran a week-long series on college admissions October 2-9 including a three-day College Admissions and Financial Aid Hotline for parents and students. For back issues see usatoday.com .
...Washington Monthly published an article by Nicholas Thompson, "Playing with Numbers," that looked at the impact college rankings have on alumni and parents. [back to top]
Key Facts
A few facts CB picked up while at the NACAC conference:
· A record 15.1 million students enrolled in two- and four-year colleges this fall, according to The Baltimore Sun, "the result of a baby boomlet and an economy that has enabled more parents to send their kids on to college."
· The result: Admission is more competitive than ever, according to admissions officers.
· 83 percent of four-year colleges used test scores in admission in 1998-99, according to the 1,800 four-year institutions surveyed by the College Board's Annual Survey of Colleges. [back to top]
COLLEGE BOUND's Editor: R. Craig Sautter, DePaul University; Associate Editors: Connie Amon, Jennifer C. Patterson; Assistant Editor: Larry Busking; Circulation: Irma Gonzalez-Hider; Illustration: Louis Coronel; Board of Advisors: Claire D. Friedlander, Bedford (NY) Central School District; Howard Greene, author, The Select; Terence Giffin, Choate-Rosemary Hall; Frank C. Leana, Ph.D., educational counselor; Virginia Vogel, Educational Guidance Services; M. Fredric Volkmann, Washington University in St. Louis, Mary Ann Willis, Bayside Academy (Daphne, Ala.).
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