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Vol. 16 No. 10
June/July 2002
Three Year-End
Reports
Who Really Goes to College?
A NEW STUDY from the American
Council on Education (ACE) entitled "Access & Persistence:
Findings from 10 Years of Longitudinal Research on Students,"
asked a simple but elusive question; "What do we really
know about who's going to college?" Here are some of ACE's
major findings:
- College students in the new millennium are racially and culturally
diverse: 30 percent are minorities; 20 percent were born outside
of the U.S.; and 11 percent did not speak English during their
childhood.
- About 60 percent of today's students do not fit the mold
of having enrolled immediately after high school, are not entirely
dependent upon their parents financially, and do not work at
all or only part-time.
- Nearly 75 percent of all four-year college students now work,
and about 25 percent of them work full-time.
QUESTIONS OF ACCESS
The ACE survey also looked at questions of college
access, and found:
- A young person's likelihood of attending a four-year college
increases with the level of his or her parents' education. This
is true even for the most highly qualified high school seniors.
- Taking challenging mathematics courses can mitigate the effect
of parents' education on college enrollment.
- More at-risk students apply to college if their friends go.
College outreach programs, as well as parental and school support
with the application process, also have proven worthwhile.
- The price of attending college is still a significant obstacle
for students from low- and middle-income families. But financial
aid is an equalizer, to some degree. Low-income students enroll
at the same rate as middle-income students, if they take all
the necessary steps toward enrollment.
WHO PERSISTS?
Who stays in school? Here's what ACE found:
- Even if students leave their first college, they do not necessarily
drop out of the postsecondary system. Many transferred to a second
school.
- Students who enroll in rigorous high school academic classes,
and who limit the number of hours they work while in college,
increase their likelihood of succeeding in college.
- Risk factors that make it more difficult for students to
complete college include working full-time, starting at a community
college and having parents who did not attend college.
- In 1992-93, 64 percent of students who earned their bachelor's
degree finished within five years. More than one-third of the
students took more than five years to earn their degree.
AFTER COLLEGE?
- About one-third of those who earn a bachelor's degree enroll
in a graduate program within four years.
- Students whose parents did not attend college, but who earn
their bachelor's degree, had the same employment outcomes as
students whose parents did go to college.
- Just over one-third of all graduates were repaying student
loans four years after they finish college. The payments, averaging
about $150 per month, were not burdensome for most of them. However,
these data predate recent large increases in borrowing, ACE reported.
This and other ACE reports can be obtained by calling 301-632-6757,
or through the ACE web site at www.acenet.edu; $15, ask for #309375.
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N.C. Drops Early
Decision
AFTER AN EXAMINATION of its
merits, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill has decided
to drop its binding early decision program, becoming the first
major university in the nation to eliminate the popular program.
"Carolina has taken this step because we believe it will
best serve our future students and their families," announced
Chancellor James Moeser. "We want to encourage students
to approach their education seriously, not by using strategy,
and we hope to contribute to a national climate that encourages
thoughtful choice."
PROBLEMS
Dr. Jerome Lucido, vice provost for enrollment management
and director of admissions, added, "We've observed growing
pressure on students to choose colleges earlier simply because
they believe it is their best chance to get in, without the benefit
of the considerable maturation that takes place in the senior
year of high school. In that respect, we don't feel that our
early decision plan serves . . . good college decision-making."
North Carolina's early decision plan dated back many years
before it was dropped in the 1970s, then resumed for fall 2000.
"It was designed to serve very few strong students who were
clearly set on one college or another," said Lucido. Now,
however, he pointed out, early decision programs are "creating
a national frenzy about how to play the college admission game."
Another problem was that early decision seemed to favor students
from private schools and affluent public school districts where
school personnel were more likely to be in tune to the edge gained
by applying early. An internal review showed that 82 percent
of those admitted to North Carolina's early decision plan were
white, as opposed to 72 percent from the later pool.
"No matter how responsibly you run an early decision
program," said Lucido, "it still tends to be a group
of students who are more financially able and less diverse. So
the choice we're making now is consistent with UNC's time-honored
mission of access to students of all backgrounds."
BETTER DECISIONS
North Carolina believes that students will make better
decisions near the end of high school, when they're better informed,
have had more time to visit campuses and are more likely to know
their financial aid options at different institutions, he said.
Lucido added, "On balance, binding early decision is much
more in the college's interest than the students."
Among in-state applicants, UNC admitted 58 percent of early
decision candidates in 2000 compared with 62 percent of the later
pool. In 2001, it admitted 56 percent compared to 68 percent
in the traditional group. Similar figures were posted for out-of-state
students.
Although North Carolina is getting rid of its binding early
decision plan, which had a deadline of October 15, and was binding
on the accepted student, its non-binding early action program
will remain in operation. Students applying to UNC early action
face a November 15th deadline and are notified late in January.
They also may apply to other schools and if accepted by UNC,
are not bound to attend.
In fall 2002, 3,687 new students are expected to enroll at
UNC. Last year, 38 percent of its applicants were admitted, and
36 percent of these were among the top 10 students in their class.
This year's SAT scores rose from 1285 in 2000 to 1301. UNC doesn't
expect to see a fall off in the quality of its students under
the new regulations.
However, it remains to be seen whether any or many schools
follow UNC's bold move. CB will keep you updated.
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Community Colleges
Reaching Capacity
AN INCREASING NUMBER of high
school students will be turning to community colleges this summer
to begin their postsecondary education.
And, according to a recent survey by the American Association
of Community Colleges and ACT Inc., students will be attending
community colleges for a broad range of reasons.
For incoming freshmen, community colleges are more accessible
to some students, less expensive and have more lenient admissions
policies. In addition to those who are returning from the workforce
to retool their skills, community colleges are the entry point
for many first-generation students and for those who need to
save money for a few years before going off to a four-year college.
But many students this year will find it difficult to enroll.
While the number of students seeking admissions to four-year
colleges and universities is at an all-time high, community colleges
across the country are reporting that they too have reached capacity
in some areas.
In 1976, 3.7 million students attended community colleges
nationally. By 1999, that number had risen to 5.3 million students.
And the numbers keep increasing.
Enrollment was up 18 percent at Miami Dade Community College
in Florida during the fall of 2001. Indiana reported that its
community college system grew by more than 17 percent last year
with the opening of six new campuses across the state. Ivy Tech
State College, with 10 campuses, reported an increase of 4,000
students and a long waiting list for others.
Cape Fear Community College in Wilming_ton, North Carolina,
reported similar demand, according to The Chronicle of Higher
Education which noted that it is not just traditional vocational
students and those seeking retraining who are returning to community
colleges such as Cape Fear. It is facing an onslaught from the
18-year-old students as well, including top academic students
from local high schools. About 40 percent of Cape Fear's 6,216
students plan to transfer their college credits to a four-year
institution.
At California's 108 community colleges, the number of students
under age 19 skyrocketed from 268,593 in 1996 to 355,308 in 2000.
The influx of students is so great that many community colleges
have had to put students on waiting lists.
States such as Pennsylvania, New York, Nevada and Utah have
expanded the mission of their community colleges to include four-year
degree programs. Florida and Maryland have enlisted their community
colleges to aid in four-year teacher training programs to meet
the growing teacher shortage. As demand in this and other areas
increases, other states are likely to follow.
And demand is certain to continue growing. In 2000, U.S. high
schools graduated about 2.8 million students. By 2008, that number
is expected to increase to 3.2 million students. Many of them
are expected to start their educations in community colleges
where classes in many places already are filled to capacity.
BUDGET PRESSURES
Even if community colleges could keep up with demand,
there is the issue of cost. Community colleges receive about
60 percent of their funding from state legislatures. The only
question is, with state budgets under severe stress, will they
be able to afford new student demand? States such as Massachusetts,
North Carolina, Iowa, California, Washington, Minnesota and Utah
face significant cuts in community college budgets, according
to a recent report in USA Today.
Many are having to increase tuition as a result. Everett Community
College in Washington, for example, is raising its tuition 9
percent for the fall.
And, The Wasington Post reported recently that Maryland
community colleges are planning to raise tuition fees by as much
as 10 percent. Community colleges elsewhere are likely to follow.
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Lack of career
guidance
A study released last month by Ferris State University
and three national trade associations found American youth suffered
from "a severe lack of career guidance." The report,
"Decisions without Direction: Career Guidance and Decision
Making Among American Youth" surveyed 800 high school juniors
and seniors. For more info and recommendations see www.Ferris.edu/careerinstitute.
Ivy League Entering
Joint Pact Regarding ED?
Meanwhile, in May, Yale asked the U.S. Department
of Justice to provide advance immunity from antitrust laws for
colleges seeking joint agreements to end freshmen early-decision
programs, according to The Wall Street Journal. Ivy League
schools had wanted to discuss joint action but feared doing so
until the Justice Department made a ruling.
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THE COUNSELOR'S CORNER
THE GREENE REPORT
Wait Lists As Game Theory
 SUSAN IS A GOOD STUDENT who applied to eight
colleges in which she had varying interest. But she was confused
and dismayed about acceptances and denials at several competitive
colleges and waitlists at others where her individual profile
put her in the top part of the applicant pool. Perhaps it is
"A Beautiful Mind" that has made everyone aware of
game theory, with its emphasis on probability, strategy, unclear
information, and multiple decision makers.
Admissions committees seem transparent to counselors and families
in their accelerating use of waitlists to better the odds of
increasing one institution's gain to the disadvantage of competitors.
Deciding which candidates to admit and which to keep in reserve
seems "game theory" gone awry.
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE GAME?
We understand holding some qualified applicants in
reserve each year. It is difficult for admissions staff to predict
yield, the percentage of accepted applicants who decide to attend.
Students with strong academic credentials know about competition
for spaces in selective colleges, and apply to seven or more.
Each institution protects itself by creating a list of qualified
and appealing candidates to whom they turn if they misjudge expected
yield. Additionally, some colleges suggest that they use the
waitlist to indicate to students that they are talented and qualified
for admission, even though they did not make this year's cut.
Others defend a large waiting list as a diverse reservoir of
strong and interested applicants, from which they can choose
the right mix of students if spaces become available. The fact
is that these days, even with students applying to more colleges,
the numbers of talented candidates are real. Many, if not most,
of the selective colleges and universities found that their yields
were again very high this spring.
But the newer admissions strategy, serving mainly the self-interest
of institutions, is waitlisting a huge cohort of qualified
applicants who seem not to have demonstrated the interest and
commitment that would help the school predict yield. The irony
is that students such as Susan with outstanding grades and test
scores risk being waitlisted by appealing colleges because the
schools are convinced these students will not enroll. But if
a student does not gain admission to the most selective schools
to which she applies, she may have no options.
This is especially true-and tragic-because many colleges with
extensive (we could say excessive) waitlists admit few, if any,
students from the roster. This year, for example, we expect little
or no movement on the Ivy League's waitlists. At some large selective
public universities, there are a thousand or more students on
the waitlist, even though they have not accepted any students
from the waitlist in recent years.
At two competitive middle-sized private universities with
which we spoke, the waitlists (1,725 and 2,100) this year and
last were larger than the size of the incoming class, almost
twice as large in the second case. In both instances, fewer than
100 students were accepted from the waitlists this year and last.
At one small college we spoke with, the same held true: over
600 students on a waitlist for a school with a first-year class
of about 500, and only 30 accepted from the waitlist.
Even while these schools encourage students on the waitlist
to consider their other college options, they offer increasingly
complex options for families to consider. Wake Forest offered
applicants three different dates up to which they would remain
on the waitlist, the implication being that those who chose to
wait on the list until the last date in July were the most interested
in attending.
The waitlist letter (let alone a phone call to students) is
often a thinly veiled (and unpleasant) plea to "put your
money where your mouth is": will you demonstrate commitment
to our college? Can you give us an answer in three days? Is this
Early Decision Round III?
Students often see a waitlist as a polite rejection or a teaser
by a second choice school that does not recognize their talents
or interest, though this is not necessarily the case. The college
process is so fraught with anxiety and vulnerability for students
that they disdain dragging out admissions for another month.
Admissions committees often misinterpret the applicant's level
of interest.
Yet, many accomplished students are unable to visit campus
because of commitments to studies and activities, or for cost
reasons. Many applicants are never contacted by alumni for an
interview. And too few schools offer on-campus interviews. Also,
one institution's admissions committee cannot forecast which
other colleges will accept a candidate. Each has its own mix
of applicants, evaluates them in comparison with one another,
and tries to determine special goals for the incoming class.
Finally, we are dealing with adolescents who are able-okay, likely-to
change their perspectives dramatically during senior year. This
development is necessary and important.
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WHAT CAN STUDENTS AND COLLEGES
DO?
Treat every college like a first choice. Visit, interview,
and cater to each college, wherever and whenever possible. Students
need not apply ED to get into college, but they do need to let
schools know about their level of interest. Counselors can help
by talking with their students about their preferences, and helping
them convey their level of interest during the admissions process
and after a waitlist.
If students do get waitlisted, they shouldn't count themselves
in or out. Colleges will want to hear about why they are interested
in them, and whether they will go if accepted from the waitlist.
In the future, we would like to see more colleges take a more
conservative approach to the waitlist, using it only for appropriate
candidates who have a reasonable chance for admission later in
the spring, and explaining clearly in their waitlist letter the
overall numbers and history of movement on the waitlist. Maintaining
diversity on the list is important. But it is inconceivable that
a college would require a waitlist the size of the first-year
class, when only five percent of the students will be taken from
the waitlist. Even if only half of students offered a place on
the waitlist choose to stay active, that still amounts to only
a ten percent acceptance rate. It is important to realize that
these figures are common not just at Ivy institutions, but at
many selective colleges and universities, often those most in
danger of losing attractive candidates because of "the game
theory."
Howard and Matthew Greene are independent educational consultants
in Westport, CT, and New York City, and are co-authors of the
Greenes' Guides to Educational Planning Series.
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NEWS YOU CAN USE
Last Minute Openings. More than 270 colleges and
universities still have space available for qualified students
for Fall 2002 freshman and/or transfer classes, according to
NACAC's 15th annual "Space Availability Survey: Openings
for Qualified Students."
The results, gathered at the beginning of May, may be viewed
at www.nacac.com and will be updated throughout the summer. "It
is important for counselors to know that options remain for both
freshmen and transfer students," said NACAC President Paul
Pedersen.
Affirmative Action Update.
Race may be considered as a factor for admissions to the University
of Michigan Law School, as long as there are no quotas, the 6th
Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in a split decision this May.
The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals decision reversed a lower District
Court ruling on the Michigan case. Its ruling stands in opposition
to a federal decision about a similar case against the University
of Texas Law School by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (the
Hopwell decision). Thus, it is likely that the U.S. Supreme Court
will be obliged to make a final resolution of the issue of whether
race may be considered in future college admissions decisions.
Tougher Job Market. Finding
a job could be tough for graduates of the class of 2002. According
to the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan State
University, the labor market for new grads could decline by as
much as 13 percent. Other job experts are predicting an even
steeper decline of 20 percent. At some colleges, recruitment
is down as much as 30 percent.
On-Site Campus Visits Important.
What should students do this summer to prepare for college? Visit
a college campus. According to Noel-Levitz, an educational consulting
company, half of the enrollment professionals it surveyed recently
were experiencing an increase in campus visits since the terrorist
acts of September 11.
Indeed, a study of nearly 400 college-bound high school students
this year found that 76 percent of respondents say that their
first visit to a college campus increased their interest in that
institution. However, first-generation college-bound students
and those from lower-income brackets visit considerably fewer
schools and are less likely to be accompanied by a parent, facts
that may decrease the college options available to them.
"Colleges and universities should continue communicating
with senior students," said Kathryn Karford, executive consultant,
Noel-Levitz. "Many students delay visiting campuses and
making decisions because they are unfamiliar with the college
search process. They don't realize that this delay may decrease
their options . . . . Institutions need to be cognizant of this
and encourage all students and parents to visit their campus
together."
Results of the study found that 57 percent of high-school
seniors with an "A" or "B" average had visited
at least one college campus. Students were found more likely
to have applied to an institution if a parent accompanied them
on the campus visit, they had a personal tour of campus and the
school established a relationship through contact with the student
prior to the campus visit.
Still, according to the study, nearly 40 percent of those
visiting high-school students were not accompanied by their parents.
First-generation students and those from the lowest income bracket
were even less likely to be accompanied by a parent and 40 percent
of these students visited only one campus, compared to an average
of 2.7 schools visited by all respondents.
More than 50 percent of students who had visited a college
campus made their first school visit during their junior year
or earlier.
Forty percent of students suggested that information on academic
offerings (such as availability of certain majors and degree
programs, classroom observation) was the most valued "take-away"
from their campus visits.
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INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS
New International Student
Visa Tracking System. In mid-May, the U.S. Department of
Justice introduced its new electronic international student tracking
system which is scheduled to go into operation July 1. All U.S.
colleges and universities will be expected to have logged in
their data by January 2003.
The Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, or Sevis,
will require U.S. colleges and universities to report information
about all visiting students to the Immigration and Naturalization
Service (INS). A vast computerized system will keep track of
information on over one million foreign students who study in
the U.S. each year.
Colleges are required to report when students arrive on campus,
their addresses and their majors, when they fail courses, are
expelled or dropout, among other details. INS is charged with
following up quickly.
"For too long, our student visa system has been a slow,
antiquated, paper-driven reporting system incapable of ensuring
that those who entered the United States as students are in fact
attending our educational institutions," said Attorney General
John Ashcroft in announcing Sevis.
Congress allocated more than $36 million for the computer
system in 1996 after the first World Trade Center bombing in
1993. Three of the hijackers in September 2001 attacks had student
visas.
Schools are worried, however, because they don't have the
software yet to connect with the new national system, and they
can't design software until INS announces the specifications
for its computers. That could be a problem for many of the 150
universities that enroll more than 1,000 foreign students. But
the political mandate to "get it done" is not likely
to abate in coming months.
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ADMISSIONS
WATCH
Info from Small Colleges.
Tom Mansperger, director of undergraduate admissions at Ashland
University in Ashland, Ohio, reports projected applications at
about 2,300 students. Roughly 85 percent are accepted. Applications
are slightly ahead of last year....
Bob Yapsuga, dean of enrollment management, Delaware Valley
College, Doylestown, Pennsylvania, said applications are up about
12 percent over last year to 1,288. Admissions as of April numbered
306. Total projected admissions are about 480 to 500. Trends:
"We'll see more on-campus living this year," says Yapsuga....
Barry Connors, director of admissions, Florida Southern College,
Lakeland, Florida, said applications numbered 1,596, an increase
of about 9 percent over last year. It accepted 1,155 students,
an acceptance rate of about 72 percent, the same as last year.
There's been an increase in applications from New England states,
according to Connors. International applications are also up....
Richard Hester, director of admissions, University of West
Alabama, Livingston, Alabama, said it received 530 applications
as of April, with 185 acceptances, about 35 percent, up somewhat
from previous years.
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COLLEGE BOUND's Publisher/Editor: R. Craig
Sautter, DePaul University; Chief Operating Officer: Sally
Reed; Contributor: Marc Davis; Circulation: Irma
Gonzalez-Hider; Illustration: Louis Coronel; Board
of Advisors: Rosita Fernandez-Rojo, Choate-Rosemary Hall;
Claire D. Friedlander, Bedford (N.Y.) Central School District;
Howard Greene, author, The Greenes' Guides to Educational
Planning Series; Frank C. Leana, Ph.D., educational
counselor; Virginia Vogel, Educational Guidance Services;
M. Fredric Volkmann, Washington University in St. Louis,
Mary Ann Willis, Bayside Academy (Daphne, Ala.).
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