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Vol. 19 No. 1
September 2004
THE GREENE REPORT
Coping with Unpredictability
IF WE HAD TO DISTILL this last
school year's college admissions process down to one key conundrum,
it would be"the lack of predictability." That seems
to be the current source of most of the important trends and
concerns among admission officers, counselors and families.
"Lack of predictability" fuels and is fueled by
the increasing numbers of students applying to colleges, the
demographics of the current applicant pool, the higher number
of applications they are filing, the worries over college costs
and the drive toward binding Early Decision and other early programs,
to name just a few of the issues we've seen over the last year.
How is this "unpredictability" impacting trends?
What might we expect for the future? How can we mitigate these
difficulties?
GROWING PAINS
Because more students than ever are finishing high
school, guidance counselors are having a hard time keeping up
with their case loads and providing sound individual advice to
a larger senior class. In turn, colleges are having trouble predicting
the size of their applicant pool, the likelihood of students
enrolling and the standards to set to ensure a large enough,
but not overly-filled, entering class.
In addition, because of the lack of security in today's economy,
more students are looking to higher education to provide long-term
job security and flexibility. This includes a growing number
of adult learners, whose ranks have outpaced those of traditional
college-bound students. The sheer number of available students
is proving to be a boon and a bane for many colleges.
Selective colleges can have their pick of many strong students.
But they too are now having difficulty sorting out each year's
class. And many college admissions officers are expressing their
frustration over students choosing a college to attend based
on name brand or rankings, rather than appropriateness of fit.
MORE APPLICATIONS
More competition means more applications and, in turn,
increased complexity. Driven by the uncertainty in the admission
process, students are filing more applications to a more varied
list of public and private institutions.
The new electronic tools appear to make the admissions process
simpler. Students use the Common Application and on-line applications
to file applications quickly and to multiple colleges at the
same time. But then they are facing countless college-specific
rules and requests, such as differences in standardized tests
and essay requirements, particular admission plans and multiple
deadlines, making the process all the more complex and variable.
EARLY ANXIETY
Uncertainty in admission is certainly fueling Early
Decision applications. With students uncertain where they will
get in, and colleges uncertain who will enroll, how can one be
surprised about the trend toward Early Decision applications?
Many students are convinced they'll never be accepted if they
do not apply ED. And, many colleges are enticed by ED's promise
of securing commitments from a third, one half or more of the
entering class by December or February. Students are now starting
their application process by stating that they want to be into
college by December. Parents confide that they would love for
the in-home stress to be relieved by then, too.
College admissions officers argue they have too much work
to do between November and December. But then with ED they have
less to worry about during the regular admission process. And
most colleges do not offer an ED option. But many selective institutions
do, leading to a great deal of early pressure on families and
a lot of strategic decision making that is not necessarily in
the student's best interest.
COST STRESS
Misunderstanding the actual cost of college is creating
even greater stress, exasperation and disengagement among families
about the entire college process. As we researched and produced
our latest book and PBS program on "Paying for College,"
we found a clear information gap between what colleges know and
families understand about financial aid.
Colleges continue to reassure families that a lot of funds
are available to help them pay for college. Yet many families
are convinced that costs have escalated and will climb to such
a degree that college is unaffordable. This leads them to question
the value and feasibility of pursuing a college degree.
Most stories in the mass media continue to focus on percentage
increases in tuition rather than overall college costs and the
amount of need- and non-need-based aid available. Many low- and
middle-income students are turning away from college, especially
private colleges and universities, because they do not understand
what is available to them if they are qualified applicants and
how to talk with college financial aid officers.
INTERVIEW REVIVAL
Interviews are returning as a way to connect colleges
with students. We are talking with more colleges about the renewed
availability of on-campus and alumni-interviewing programs. In
the face of greater uncertainty about numbers and intentions,
interviews present an excellent way for colleges to reach out
to students, educate them about their institution and assess
their academic and personal qualifications and fit for the college.
For example, the University of Denver has made a strong effort
to get every applicant to interview with an admissions officer,
alumni and faculty committee in the field. Vanderbilt and Wake
Forest have moved toward a stronger alumni interviewing process.
Colleges are making friends with prospective families by encouraging
them to spend time on campus, giving them a sense that they have
been heard and could get beyond statistics.
The interview actually helped some great students with whom
we worked this past year to stand out from the pack and to gain
a deeper sense of the college they wished to attend. The opportunity
to meet people beyond admissions was very helpful as well, including
faculty in the arts, sciences and humanities.
MERIT AWARDS
Merit awards helped attract some students this year,
but only, in our experience, when there was an overall admission
approach that helped students connect to the college.
Some families also became quite angry at colleges that overstated
the academic and extracurricular qualifications of admitted applicants
during interviews or information sessions. The potential exists
for not impressing students, but rather intimidating vulnerable
families, especially those with younger students in tenth or
eleventh grades, who then walk away discouraged.
The last thing people want to hear is that the admissions
decisions are highly quantitatively based. "We'll never
get in here without these numbers," families often think.
GENDER SHIFT
The gender shift is perplexing many people. One of
the most surprising trends is the predominance of girls in the
college admissions process today. Well over half of college students
are female, and at many colleges 60 percent of students are young
women. This major societal shift has crept up on us and has led
to cultural changes on most, if not all, campuses.
Indeed, former "old-boy" schools are different places
today. Yet they often battle against dated reputations from 30
years back. Technical and engineering-oriented institutions seem
to be the last places where men outnumber women. But even they
may reach parity as they continue their efforts to attract female
students with sustained effort.
SAT CHANGES
Changes in the SAT program will dominate the news
next year. In fact, it's already happening. And it's going to
get worse in the fall and spring as the new SAT debuts March
2005. But, families, teachers, counselors and even admission
officers are confused about what is changing in the SAT I and
SAT II Subject Test program. Misinformation is adding another
stress for families who don't need more to worry about.
We expect that questions about the new SAT will surpass even
concerns about college costs next year.
GETTING READY FOR THE YEAR
AHEAD
Based on these trends what recommendations do we have
for the coming school year?
1. Counselors are finding that new communications strategies
with colleges and families, enhanced data management techniques
and strong personal relations with students are more important
than ever. The task is to help educate families about how to
interact more directly and productively with colleges.
2. Now, more than ever, colleges can help families by conforming
to standard admission and enrollment practices as set by the
National Association for College Admission Counseling and adopt
the Common Application. And they can inform parents and students
about their own admission standards and requirements early in
the high school years. In turn, counselors can help students
access this information and focus on finding, applying to and
selecting from a list of the most appropriate institutions for
them as individuals. For more info on admissions standards see
www.nacac.com. For info on
the Common Applicaton go to www.commonapp.org.
3. We encourage families to think carefully about ED programs
if they are interested in them, and about the ramifications of
choosing to apply ED. Counselors and families should ask colleges
the following: Do they give preference to ED applicants over
regular admission candidates? What is the average profile of
admitted ED applicants? ED may not be the right choice for everyone.
We are fans of the Round II ED plan because of the greater
time line it gives students to consider colleges and prepare
applications.
4. We can all help educate families about financial aid opportunities,
actual college costs, average net tuition costs after typical
discounts and what constitutes a reasonable amount of loan debt.
Putting families in touch with knowledgeable financial aid officers
at colleges while visiting their campuses or during a presentation
at a high school helps keep families engaged in college planning.
5. Counselors need to help students and parents interpret
what they hear in interviews, information sessions and by mail
and e-mail during the year.
6. While there are long-term implications of the new gender
trend, the shift also presents opportunities as well as challenges
for colleges. Counselors need to make young women aware of the
many choices, and the different, more female-friendly campus
cultures that are developing. But they must also seek to encourage
talented young men to work, enroll and persist in college. This
is particularly true for students of color, where the gender
imbalance is even greater. Otherwise, we risk creating a generation
of male adults with limited job skills, career flexibility and
intellectual and personal development.
7. Counselors need to read up on changes to the SAT and ACT
programs and do all they can to educate families in their information
sessions and one-on-one meetings, on their web site and in mailings.
Students need to know they should be concentrating on improving
their reading and writing skills and taking Algebra II in order
to do well on these tests and qualify for admission and merit-based
financial awards.
We are advising those in the class of 2006 not to take the
old SAT, but rather to take the new test in the spring of 2005.
Students who plan to apply to colleges that require the SAT II's
need to find out as soon as possible which schools will still
require three tests, which will only require two and which will
continue to ask for the Writing test, which in our opinion has
now been made superfluous by the addition of the writing section
to the new SAT I. We are also encouraging students who take the
ACT to complete the ACT's new writing section, since many public
and private institutions are likely to require that as well.
As with all of these trends, counselors can help families
and themselves by trying to lessen the uncertainty, that pervading
lack of predictability, which surrounds the whole college admissions
process as much as possible. There are many excellent and affordable
colleges available to students who work hard and keep an open
mind about options.
Matthew and Howard Greene of
Howard Greene and Associates, Westport, CT, can be reached at:
www.greenesguides.com.
Howard Greene is a long-time CB Advisor.
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The Roundup
of Summer News
Are College Savings
Plans Unfair?
DO COLLEGE SAVINGS PLANS equally
benefit families of all incomes? No, according to Susan Dynarski,
assistant professor of public policy, John F. Kennedy School
of Government, Harvard U., who has studied a variety of such
plans. She found that low- and middle-income families can even
be hurt by their savings success since they reduce their children's
eligibility for financial aid.
"The financial aid system is designed in such a way that
if people put money into the wrong vehicle, they can actually
be worse off than if they didn't save at all," Dynarski
said in a recent Harvard University Gazette.
Dynarski looked at the savings incentives of a number of programs
including the Coverdell Education Savings Account and the 529
savings programs (named after the provision in the tax code)
started by various states and institutions to help parents save
for college. In 2000, those plans contained $8.6 billion in family
investments. These programs have had strong popular appeal. By
2003, that number had soared to $34.6 billion.
But Dynarski concluded that parents can lose as much as $1.22
in need-based financial aid for every dollar saved in an ESA
and $1.24 per dollar in an account created under the Uniform
Transfer to Minors Act. The damage is less for the 529 plans,
where a family can lose 15 cents of need-based aid for every
dollar saved. Money saved in a traditional IRA could cost a family
between 26 and 39 cents of need-based aid for every dollar invested,
while a mutual fund in the parent's name could cost 40 cents
per dollar in financial aid. For tax reasons, these are treated
as the parent's assets.
Wealthy families, however, who do not apply for need-based
aid, are helped by the programs. Dynarski concluded that the
best way to finance college is through a home equity loan, although
this is not an option for many low- or middle-income families.
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College
Space Limiting Choices
DEMOGRAPHICS, not rising tuition,
will limit the availability to college, particularly in the fastest
growing states of the South and West. "This is going to
be the issue of the decade," Robert G. Templin, Jr., president,
Northern Virginia Community College, told The Chronicle of
Higher Education, this summer. "There is not enough
room for everyone to go."
By the end of this decade, the number of high school graduates
is expected to soar by over 10 percent over 2002, before leveling
off. That will put enormous strain on public institutions, both
four-year and two-year schools, that will be unable to accommodate
the higher numbers unless states take action. Of course, such
action is limited by the current economic stress on state budgets.
More Competition
The growth in number of graduates has already had
an impact on admission practices in several states. The Chronicle
cited Virginia as an example where competition to the state's
most prestigious schools, such as the U. of Virginia, Virginia
Tech, James Madison U. and the College of William and Mary has
generated greater competition at schools once considered "safe."
"Middle-tier" schools such as George Mason U., Christopher
Newport U. and Virginia Commonwealth U. have been deluged with
applications from high-performing high school students who did
not get into their first choice schools. More students who are
better prepared has also meant higher retention rates at the
"middle-tier" schools and hence fewer openings.
The Opposite Problem
Meanwhile, 12 states with declining enrollment, such
as South Dakota, which will see the number of its high school
grads decline by almost 9 percent, are trying to woo more out-of-state
students. South Dakota State U., for example, is actively recruiting
students from states such as California, where they have been
working with community colleges to take their graduates. They
are also offering discounts to out-of-state students from the
West, as well as Iowa and Nebraska.
Admissions
Watch
Leslie Men. The formerly all-female, century-old Leslie
College will begin admitting men in January 2005. The Cambridge,
Massachusetts, liberal arts college of 500 undergraduates is
part of a 13,000 university. The decision leaves just 66 women's
colleges in the nation.
Wait Lists Used. This year, many colleges reported
dipping into their wait lists. Admissions officers speculate
that some of the activity was caused by students who made multiple
deposits after admission and then opted out of their school.
For example, by early July, Amherst had admitted 40 students
from its wait list, more than last year; Harvard had admitted
60 wait list students, more than in 2003; Stanford also admitted
more wait list students this year than last, so did Dickinson
C. in Pennsylvania which took 75 students off of its wait list,
a substantial increase over last year.
Late Wait List. Admitted then wait listed? That's what
happened to 167 U. of Illinois at Chicago students this June.
UIC accepted too many students for its 2,600 freshman class.
Even though the application deadline was moved up from April
1 to January 15, UIC still fielded a record 13,600 applications.
Its record yield caused the problem. "This is the first
time ever we've been unable to accommodate all admitted students,"
a university spokesman told the Chicago Sun-Times.
iPod Orientation. This fall, new Duke students will
be issued Apple iPods loaded with freshman orientation and campus
information, even the school song. In the future, other learning
materials could be added. The iPod comes free, with the $39,240
Duke charges for tuition, fees, room and board.
Really Cool. Looking for comprehensive information
on admissions? Try the U.S. Department of Education's new "College
Opportunities OnLine," popularly known as COOL, for up-to-date
info including tuition and majors of 6,000 colleges, universities
and other postsecondary opportunities. Go to: www.nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cool/
The
Federal Dollar
Higher Education Act Postponed. Bitter partisan politics
in Congress have led to the postponement of the reauthorization
of Higher Education Act until after the November presidential
election. Law makers are debating complex proposals concerning
how to set interest rates for students who consolidate federal
student loans.
Even though the act expires this fall, no student aid programs
will be disrupted, particularly if a temporary one-year extension
of the programs is passed this fall.
Student Loan Interest Rate Dips. For the fourth consecutive
year, interest rates on federal student loans have dropped, to
3.37 percent, the lowest rate in nearly 35 years, according to
the U.S. Department of Education. That means a savings of $1,523
on a $10,000 loan with a 10-year repayment plan. Three years
ago, the student loan interest rate stood at 5.99 percent.
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Career Watch
Happy Job Hunting. According to The Kiplinger Letter,
this year's college grads are having an easier time finding a
job than in recent years. "But it's still an employer's
market." It reports that top salaries are running between
$47,000 and $56,000 for mechanical and electrical engineers.
Others in demand? Those with degrees in business administration,
economics, finance, accounting, marketing, computer science and
information systems. The hottest jobs are mainly technical, in
health care, computer-aided design and electronic publishing.
Firms with technical needs are turning to community colleges
to find grads with these skills. Kiplinger adds that many
college grads are going back to community colleges to pick up
skills in these areas.
Fewer College Teaching Positions. According to the
Modern Language Association, college teaching jobs in both language
and literature declined a striking 20 percent last year. The
number of available history positions declined by 5 percent.
The cause? Serious budget problems. Meanwhile, the number of
positions in Middle East Studies has doubled in the last two
years.
MBAs back in Demand. It's been a good year for new
MBAs seeking jobs. According to a recent Chicago Tribune
report, before the stock market collapse of 2000, almost every
new MBA graduate had his or her choice of job offers. That's
still been the case for Northwestern U. grads, and at Harvard,
83 percent of the graduating class had job offers before they
graduated, compared to 78 percent last year. At the U. of Pennsylvania's
Wharton School, 80 percent had offers, with average starting
salary of $90,000. Finance grads seem to be doing best, followed
by marketing and accounting MBAs.
More Black Engineers. The U.S. Department of Education
notes that the number of black college graduates majoring in
engineering fields has jumped from less than two percent to more
than 12 percent.
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NEWS YOU CAN USE
Hispanic Graduation Gap. Although Hispanic high
school graduates enroll in college at the same rate as white
students, they are just half as likely to graduate from college,
according to a new study from the Pew Hispanic Center. Among
those in the top 20 percent of their high school class and best
prepared for college, 81 percent of white students graduate,
while just 57 percent of Hispanic students earn their degree.
The report pointed to the fact that Hispanic students more
often end up in non-selective colleges with low graduation rates,
and more frequently face individual problems such as financial
stress and family obligations. To view the study, go to www.pewhispanic.org.
Is College Dangerous for Women?
Yes, according to syndicated writer Father Andrew Greeley. The
columnist pointed out that a 17-year old female student is more
likely to be raped than a woman who does not attend college.
He adds that many of these incidents are related to binge drinking
and date rape on campus. Greeley also notes that there are plenty
of young people who have common sense and good taste. But he
suggests that colleges become serious about protecting young
women by taking complaints of rape seriously and cracking down
on binge drinking.
Immigrant Success. According
to a new study in the Journal of Research on Adolescence,
students from immigrant families are as likely to graduate from
college as U.S.-born students. But group differences persist.
For example, 96 percent of East Asian students graduate, while
63 percent of students from Latin American countries do so.
Affirmative Action Opponents
Stalled. Efforts by a Michigan group opposed to affirmative
action, the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative, failed to get enough
voter signatures to put the issue on the fall 2004 ballot. The
group hopes to meet a deadline for the 2006 election.
TUITION TABS
Washington College. In Maryland, Washington College
set its 2004 tuition at $25,990 for full-time students. Room
and board will cost an additional $6,000. "We have kept
this year's increases to 6.58 percent, as low as we possibly
can without forcing the institution to compromise core programs
and services for our students," explained Washington's president,
John Toll.
Stanford's Tuition. The
rates for tuition, room and board for the 2004-05 academic year
at Stanford represent a combined 4.5 percent increase over last
year for undergraduates. The undergraduate tuition rate was set
at $29,847, up from $28,564. The standard undergraduate room
rate rose 6.1 percent, from $4,726 to $5,012. Standard board
increased 3.2 percent, from $4,347 to $4,488.
Stanford is one of the private universities with a need-blind
admission policy that accepts students regardless of their ability
to pay. Stanford estimates 46 percent of undergraduate students
receive some form of need-based financial aid from the university.
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COLLEGE BOUND's Publisher/Editor: R. Craig
Sautter, DePaul University; Chief Operating Officer: Sally
Reed; Contributor: Marc Davis; Circulation: Irma
Gonzalez-Hider; Illustration: Louis Coronel; Board
of Advisors: Rosita Fernandez-Rojo, Choate-Rosemary Hall;
Claire D. Friedlander, Bedford (N.Y.) Central School District;
Howard Greene, author, The Greenes' Guides to Educational
Planning Series; Frank C. Leana, Ph.D., educational
counselor; Virginia Vogel, Educational Guidance Services;
M. Fredric Volkmann, Washington University in St. Louis,
Mary Ann Willis, Bayside Academy (Daphne, Ala.).
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